Browsing by Author "Espinoza, Sebastián Andrés"

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    Multi-phase assessment and adaptation of power systems resilience to natural hazards
    (2016) Espinoza, Sebastián Andrés; Panteli, M.; Mancarella, P.; Rudnick Van de Wyngard, Henry
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    Multi-phase resilience assessment and adaptation of electric power systems throughout the impact of natural disasters
    (2015) Espinoza, Sebastián Andrés; Rudnick Van de Wyngard, Henry; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de Ingeniería
    Alrededor del mundo desastres naturales como inundaciones, tormentas de nieve y viento, huracanes, tsunamis, terremotos y otros eventos de baja probabilidad y alto impacto han afectado la seguridad pública y la prosperidad económica de los países. Aun más, como impacto directo del cambio climático, se espera un incremento de la frecuencia y severidad de algunos de estos eventos en el futuro. Esto remarca la necesidad de evaluar su impacto e investigar cómo los sistemas construidos por el hombre pueden soportar alteraciones mayores con una degradación limitada del servicio junto a una rápida recuperación. En este contexto, se propone un marco multi-fase de la resiliencia, el cual puede usarse para analizar cualquier amenaza natural que tiene un gran único, múltiple y/o continuo impacto sobre infraestructura crítica, particularmente sistemas eléctricos de potencia. Primero, fases de evaluación de la resiliencia son presentadas:
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    Risk and Resilience Assessment With Component Criticality Ranking of Electric Power Systems Subject to Earthquakes
    (2020) Espinoza, Sebastián Andrés; Poulos Campbell, Alan John; Rudnick van de Wyngard, Hugh; De la Llera Martin, Juan Carlos; Panteli, M.; Mancarella, P.
    Countries around the world suffer the dramatic impact of earthquakes and other natural hazards reflected in casualties, infrastructure damage, service interruptions, and recovery costs. Although disaster exposure consciousness of electric power systems has increased in recent years, mitigation and adaptation actions, such as reserve scheduling and infrastructure investments, are usually performed without quantitative tools to account for the underlying stochasticity of these events. This article first discusses why an integrated assessment, which incorporates sources of uncertainty (risk) and manages the time-dependency of the recovery process (resilience), should be used to assess the impact of seismic events on electric power systems. Thereafter, a probabilistic methodology that considers the hazard, vulnerability, operation, and recovery of the system is presented. As a case study, the probabilistic seismic resilience of the electric power system of Northern Chile is assessed using different risk measures, including expected annual loss, value at risk, and conditional value-at-risk. Finally, a novel criticality assessment based on these metrics is developed to demonstrate that, for certain networks such as the study case, retrofit of selective components can notably improve the resilience of the complete system to seismic events. For example, if one specific component from the 152 components of the study system is assumed invulnerable, expected annual interruption costs decrease by 8%.
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    Seismic risk assessment of spatially distributed electric power systems
    (National Information Centre of Earthquake Engineering, 2017) Poulos Campbell, Alan John; Espinoza, Sebastián Andrés; Llera Martin, Juan Carlos de la; Rudnick van de Wyngard, Hugh
    The adequate performance of critical infrastructure such as transportation, telecommunications, healthcare, and electric power systems are essential to the resilience of communities after major earthquakes. However, assessing the seismic risk of networks is more complex than for individual structures since the performance of systems depend on several spatially distributed intensity measures and the interdependence amongst the system’s components. A convenient and probabilistically consistent way of performing the assessment is by the use of a stochastically-generated earthquake catalogue. This paper computes the seismic risk of electric power systems and its methodology can be summarized in three steps: (i) sample hazard-consistent seismic scenarios; (ii) compute the overall performance of the system for each scenario; and (iii) estimate the seismic risk from the performances of all earthquake scenarios. The resulting risk is represented by the commonly used expected annual service loss of the system, but also by the complete probability distribution of accumulated deficit of electric service. The methodology is applied to the electric network in north Chile, and is used to estimate the Energy Not Supplied (ENS) and the Energy Index of Unreliability (EIU) due to seismic events. Finally, an evaluation of the effect that different sampling methods have on the expected values and uncertainty of results is presented.