Browsing by Author "Favereau Monti, Marcel Joseph"

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    Evaluation of multipurpose reservoir operating policies at basin and electric power system scales
    (2024) Durán Flores, Antonia Ignacia Paz; Favereau Monti, Marcel Joseph; Lorca Gálvez, Álvaro Hugo; Vicuña Diaz, Sebastián; Melo Contreras, Óscar Alfredo; Negrete Pincetic, Matías Alejandro
    Climatic phenomena, particularly hydrological droughts, have led to significant changes in reservoir operation strategies. Multi-purpose reservoir operations are essential for effectively managing stored water resources for various activities like electricity generation andagricultural irrigation. Despite considerable efforts to support decision making for each economic activity, there remains a weak integrationacross these sectors in joint analyses. To address this, an integrated approach combining a model of a large power system and a model at the basinscale is proposed to analyze the operation of both power and agricultural systems. This approach allows evaluation of the operating policies of amultipurpose reservoir and its performance at both the local and regional scales under different hydrological scenarios. A modification is imple-mented whereby the priority of water extraction to agricultural users is increased. Its effects are assessed for different hydrological trajectories ina case study in the Laja Lake basin in southern Chile, the biggest Chilean basin with a capacity of up to5,500Hm3. The Laja Lake, a multi-purpose reservoir with substantial hydroelectric generation capacity and extensive agricultural areas plays a crucial role in the operation of thenational power system. Based on an analysis of 2025, it is demonstrated that hydrological changes directly impact electrical and agriculturalperformance. Drought conditions increase thermal generation, costs, emission intensity, and water deficits. Furthermore, the policy modificationreveals tradeoffs between the power sector’s emissions and agricultural water deficits. For drier scenarios, increasing agricultural extractionpriority results in low additional operational costs and emissions from the power system, which supports adopting a policy aligned with netzero objectives.
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    Medium-term stochastic hydrothermal scheduling with short-term operational effects for large-scale power and water networks
    (2024) Navarro Casamayor, Andrés; Favereau Monti, Marcel Joseph; Lorca Gálvez, Álvaro Hugo; Olivares Quero, Daniel; Negrete Pincetic, Matías Alejandro
    The high integration of variable renewable sources in electric power systems entails a series of challenges inherent to their intrinsic variability. A critical challenge is to correctly value the water available in reservoirs in hydrothermal systems, considering the flexibility that it provides. In this context, this paper proposes a medium-term multistage stochastic optimization model for the hydrothermal scheduling problem solved with the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. The proposed model includes operational constraints and simplified mathematical expressions of relevant operational effects that allow more informed assessment of the water value by considering, among others, the flexibility necessary for the operation of the system. In addition, the hydrological uncertainty in the model is represented by a vector autoregressive process, which allows capturing spatio-temporal correlations between the different hydro inflows. A calibration method for the simplified mathematical expressions of operational effects is also proposed, which allows a detailed short-term operational model to be correctly linked to the proposed medium-term linear model. Through extensive experiments for the Chilean power system, the results show that the difference between the expected operating costs of the proposed medium-term model, and the costs obtained through a detailed short-term operational model was only 0.1%, in contrast to the 9.3% difference obtained when a simpler base model is employed. This shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Further, this difference is also reflected in the estimation of the water value, which is critical in water shortage situations.
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    Optimization under uncertainty for the management of hydroelectric resources
    (2023) Favereau Monti, Marcel Joseph; Lorca Gálvez, Álvaro Hugo; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de Ingeniería
    Hydroelectric generation management is considered a fundamental problem in the operation of power systems, where operations research has contributed significantly to decision making. One of the most relevant difficulties is that the decisions of storage and use of water resources in the present affect future decisions. Additionally, this problem presents another important challenge associated with the uncertain nature of hydro inflows, which is becoming even more complex today due to the consequences of climate change. Thus, this thesis proposes the development of optimization under uncertainty models to support medium- and long-term planning of hydrothermal system operations. First, this thesis proposes to develop a statistical model that represents the random behavior of hydro inflows in multinodal and multireservoir hydrothermal systems. The purpose is to capture statistical aspects such as trend, seasonality, spatio-temporal correlation, asymmetry and multiple modes present in historical hydrological data through the use of autoregressive models and variational inference algorithms. In a second part, it is proposed the development of a risk-averse optimization under uncertainty model that incorporates the previously proposed statistical methodologies for the medium-term operation of hydrothermal systems. The main objective is to determine an optimal generation policy capable of operating efficiently under the least favorable realizations of future hydrological trajectories. Finally, the third stage consists of the development of optimization under uncertainty models that support long-term energy planning and operation processes. The idea is to analyze the role of water in the interaction with other productive sectors such as agriculture, thus improving the efficiency of the use of their resources. This tool will also make it possible to anticipate future phenomena such as the penetration of new technologies, regulatory changes in the use of water resources or their low availability, and what would be the impacts on the resource management for different users.