Browsing by Author "Guzmán Pincheira, Simón Andrés"

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    Assessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities
    (2023) León, Jorge; Winckler, Patricio; Vicuña del Río, María Magdalena; Guzmán Pincheira, Simón Andrés; Larraguibel, Cristian
    This study reviews the degree to which land-use planning addresses climate change adaptation in Chilean Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ). We first select 12 of the country’s most exposed coastal municipalities using a Municipal Exposure Index (MEI). Then, we conduct a content analysis of the communal regulatory plans (CRPs) using a “presumed exposure analysis”, which assumes that the inventory of assets within LECZ, according to the 2017 census, is a proxy of the exposure. Then, we conduct a more refined “hazard exposure analysis” by comparing changes in flooding levels between a historical period (1985–2004) and the RCP8.5 scenario (2026–2045). Using the latter approach, we show that flooding could affect large portions of the municipalities’ housing areas (3.7%), critical facilities (14.6%), and wetlands (22.7%) in the period 2026–2045. In the presumed exposure analysis, these percentages rise to 7.5%, 23.9%, and 24.9%, respectively. We find that CRPs also allow for a densification of exposed residential areas, whose density would increase by 9.2 times, on average, between the historical period and the RCP8.5 scenario. Additionally, only four municipalities define floodable zones as “risk areas”. Lastly, the difficulty in updating CRPs and their antiquity −21.25 years old on average could explain their ineffectiveness in implementing climate change adaptation strategies.
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    Urban form planning and tsunami risk vulnerability: Analysis of 12 Chilean coastal cities
    (2022) Vicuña Del Rio, Maria Magdalena; Leon, Jorge; Guzmán Pincheira, Simón Andrés
    Urban form has a significant impact on risk. Spatial planning instruments can optimize urban form in areas exposed to hazards. This work discusses how urban planning instruments, specifically Communal Regulatory Plans (CRPs), affect vulnerability to the risk of tsunami inundation in Chilean coastal cities. We analyze urban form and address exposure, susceptibility, and response capacity parameters. Exposure is evaluated by comparing existing and planned densities and to what extent planned risk areas coincide with inundation zones. We analyze existing critical facilities and land uses permitted by the CRP in inundation zones to evaluate susceptibility. We explore response capacity through the street network connectivity and green areas outside the inundation zone and how CRPs influence the structuring of new roads and new green spaces. We found that CRPs do not hold the sufficient capacity to incorporate and manage the tsunami inundation risk adequately. The planning scenario leads to a systematic increase in vulnerability as cities develop in exposed areas. We suggest to strengthen CRPs capacities to prevent the construction and reconstruction of areas affected by tsunamis, reinforcing the urban fabric's potential for evacuation, and to strengthen joint work between municipal urban planning and disaster risk management departments, among other recommendations.