Browsing by Author "León, Jorge"

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    Assessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities
    (2023) León, Jorge; Winckler, Patricio; Vicuña del Río, María Magdalena; Guzmán Pincheira, Simón Andrés; Larraguibel, Cristian
    This study reviews the degree to which land-use planning addresses climate change adaptation in Chilean Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ). We first select 12 of the country’s most exposed coastal municipalities using a Municipal Exposure Index (MEI). Then, we conduct a content analysis of the communal regulatory plans (CRPs) using a “presumed exposure analysis”, which assumes that the inventory of assets within LECZ, according to the 2017 census, is a proxy of the exposure. Then, we conduct a more refined “hazard exposure analysis” by comparing changes in flooding levels between a historical period (1985–2004) and the RCP8.5 scenario (2026–2045). Using the latter approach, we show that flooding could affect large portions of the municipalities’ housing areas (3.7%), critical facilities (14.6%), and wetlands (22.7%) in the period 2026–2045. In the presumed exposure analysis, these percentages rise to 7.5%, 23.9%, and 24.9%, respectively. We find that CRPs also allow for a densification of exposed residential areas, whose density would increase by 9.2 times, on average, between the historical period and the RCP8.5 scenario. Additionally, only four municipalities define floodable zones as “risk areas”. Lastly, the difficulty in updating CRPs and their antiquity −21.25 years old on average could explain their ineffectiveness in implementing climate change adaptation strategies.
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    Examining the role of urban form in supporting rapid and safe tsunami evacuations: A multi-scalar analysis in Viña del Mar, Chile
    (2018) León, Jorge; Mokrani, Cyril; Catalán, Patricio; Cienfuegos Carrasco, Rodrigo Alberto; Femenías, Carolina
    Cities are increasingly becoming hot-spots for nature-originated disasters. While the role of the urban built environment in fostering disaster resilience has been recognized for some time, it has been difficult to translate this potential into practice. This is especially challenging in the case of rapid onset crises such as near-field tsunamis, when appropriate urban forms have to support the populations' ability to autonomously carry out safe and timely responses. In this respect, much of current research remains focused on large-scale elements of urban configuration (streets, squares, parks, etc.) through which people move during an emergency. In contrast, the critical micro-scale of evacuees' experiences within the built environment is not commonly examined. This paper addresses this shortfall through a macro- and micro-scale analysis of a near-field tsunami scenario affecting the city of Villa del Mar, Chile, including a mixed-methods approach that combines computer-based models and fieldwork. The results show significant macro-scale tsunami vulnerability throughout major areas of the city, which nonetheless could be mitigated by existing nearby high ground and an urban form that allows short evacuation times. However, micro-scale outcomes show comparatively deficient spatial conditions that during an emergency might lead to dangerous outcomes including bottlenecks, falls and panic. Vertical evacuation, in turn, is confirmed as a suitable option for reducing vulnerability, but further examination of each shelter's characteristics is required. (C) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.