Browsing by Author "Luna, Juan Pablo"

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    A Two-Level Theory of Presidential Instability
    (CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2014) Luna, Juan Pablo; Murillo, Maria Victoria; Schrank, Andrew
    This article analyzes the conditions that facilitate the ousting of Latin American presidents and the mechanisms that prevent their downfall. Drawing lessons from the impeachment of Paraguayan president Fernando Lugo, it extends previous arguments about the "legislative shield" to show that the same forces that sometimes conspire to terminate an administration at other times work to resist its demise. The argument underscores the interaction between legislators and social movements, two prominent actors in the literature on presidential instability. The article presents a two-level theory to identify possible configurations of mass and legislative alignments, and tests some implications of the theory with data for 116 Latin American presidents over 28 years. Multiple comparison tests based on random effects logistic models show that popular protests can be neutralized by strong support in Congress, and hint at the possibility that legislative threats can be neutralized by loyal demonstrators in the streets.
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    Amplifying Counter-Public Spheres on Social Media: News Sharing of Alternative Versus Traditional Media After the 2019 Chilean Uprising
    (2022) Luna, Juan Pablo; Toro, Sergio; Valenzuela, Sebastian
    While much research exists on the role of digital media use in protest movements, few studies compare the long-term impact of protests on online use of alternative and mainstream digital media. This holds particularly true in countries of the global south. Our study addresses this knowledge gap by examining the massive demonstrations that occurred in Chile on 18 October 2019. Based on data from 1,221,487 Facebook posts from 31 media outlets collected 10 months before and after the protests, we detected significant discontinuities in users' interactions with news content. Whereas both media types display different baseline levels, for alternative media, the time series reflects a "step" type of shock-a long-lasting increase in news sharing-whereas for mainstream media, it is a "pulse" type of shock-a burst of interactions that quickly returned to pre-existing levels. These results suggest that social media users relied on alternative news media to amplify counterpublic spheres in Chile.
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    Castigo a los oficialismos y ciclo político de derecha en América Latina
    (2021) Luna, Juan Pablo; Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal
    El artículo presenta una caracterización de tres estrategias (no electoral, electoral no partidaria, y partidaria) que la derecha emplea en América Latina actualmente. Analizando el derrotero reciente de los sistemas de partido en la región argumentamos también que el denominado giro a la derecha constituye un proceso de alternancia generado por el castigo a los oficialismos de la última década y media (mayoritariamente de izquierda), más que un realineamiento ideológico estructural. La alternancia se produce, además, en un contexto en que tienden a desaparecer o debilitarse significativamente los partidos establecidos, y en el que irrumpen vehículos electorales usualmente evanescentes. Finalmente, argumentamos que no parece existir hoy espacio en la región -especialmente debido a la crisis social asociada a los efectos de la pandemia del covid-19- para el fortalecimiento de una derecha neoliberal. Sin embargo, el contexto actual sí parece propicio para el surgimiento de outsiders de derecha, capaces de estructurar una agenda prorden que incorpore, en distintas proporciones, políticas de mano dura, conservadurismo valórico, y liberalismo de mercado.
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    CHILE'S CRISIS OF REPRESENTATION
    (2016) Luna, Juan Pablo
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    Chile’s Crisis of Representation
    (2016) Luna, Juan Pablo
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    Criminal social orders in Chile: A social-spatial theory of criminal governance in low-intensity violence societies
    (2024) Parra Coray, Gonzalo; Luna, Juan Pablo; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política
    Why, in some communities, do drug trafficking organizations interact with residents to produce one type of social order, while in others, they do not? Or, more broadly, under what conditions does criminal social order assume different forms? Building on recent insights on civil war literature, criminal governance, and ethnographic data collected during two years of fieldwork, I propose that to explain this variation, it is necessary to unpack the social structure of the communities within which criminal organizations operate: density of social organization and the embeddedness of criminal gangs into the community. By conditioning the social order on the structure of the community, social and criminal actors can interact in multiple ways, more or less ritualized, to collaborate to pursue mutual or interdependent goals. To test these hypotheses, I use a natural experiment approach and within-case process tracing in four neighborhoods in Chile. In addition, I propose four ideal types of criminal social orders that emerge from the interplay between community social density and DTO embeddedness.
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    Delayed and Approved: A Quantitative Study of Conflicts and the Environmental Impact Assessments of Energy Projects in Chile 2012-2017
    (MDPI, 2021) Huneeus, Sebastian; Toro, Sergio; Luna, Juan Pablo; Sazo, Diego; Cruz, Andres; Alcatruz, Daniel; Castillo, Bryan; Bertranou, Camila; Cisterna, Javier
    The Sistema de Evaluacion de Impacto Ambiental (Environmental Impact Assessment System-SEIA) evaluates all projects potentially harmful to human health and the environment in Chile. Since its establishment, many projects approved by the SEIA have been contested by organized communities, especially in the energy sector. The question guiding our research is whether socio-environmental conflicts affect the evaluation times and the approval rates of projects under assessment. Using a novel database comprising all energy projects assessed by the SEIA, we analyzed 380 energy projects that entered the SEIA review process between 2012 and 2017 and matched these projects with protest events. Using linear and logit regression, we find no association between the occurrence of protests aimed at specific projects and the probability of project approval. We do, however, find that projects associated with the occurrence of protest events experience significantly longer review times. To assess the robustness of this finding, we compare two run-of-river plants proposed in Mapuche territory in Chile's La Araucania region. We discuss the broader implications of these findings for sustainable environmental decision making.
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    Diminished Parties. Democratic Representation in Contemporary Latin America
    (Cambridge University Press, 2021) Abente Brun, Diego; Alfaro-Redondo, Ronald; Anria, Santiago; Augusto, María Claudia; Combes, Hélène; M. Conaghan, Catherine; Cyr, Jennifer; Gómez-Campos, Steffan; Lemus, Jonatán; Luna, Juan Pablo; Ortega, Bibiana; Pérez Bentancur, Verónica; Piñeiro Rodríguez, Rafael; Rosenblatt, Fernando; Sánchez-Sibony, Omar; Sarmiento, Viviana; Toro Maureira, Sergio; Vergara, Alberto; Vommaro, Gabriel; Wills-Otero, Laura; Luna, Juan Pablo; Piñeiro Rodríguez, Rafael; Rosenblatt, Fernando; Vommaro, Gabriel
    Many contemporary party organizations are failing to fulfill their representational role in contemporary democracies. While political scientists tend to rely on a minimalist definition of political parties (groups of candidates that compete in elections), this volume argues that this misses how parties can differ not only in degree but also in kind. With a new typology of political parties, the authors provide a new analytical tool to address the role of political parties in democratic functioning and political representation. The empirical chapters apply the conceptual framework to analyze seventeen parties across Latin America. The authors are established scholars expert in comparative politics and in the cases included in the volume. The book sets an agenda for future research on parties and representation, and it will appeal to those concerned with the challenges of consolidating stable and programmatic party systems in developing democracies.
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    Disjointed Polarization in Chile’s Enduring Crisis of Representation
    (Cambridge University Press, 2024) Luna, Juan Pablo
    This analytical essay proposes the notion of disjointed polarization to characterize the nature of polarization in contemporary Chile. In disjointed polarization, elite-level polarization does not lead to a successful electoral realignment. Disjointed polarization is thus consistent with a long-lasting crisis of representation in which a serial disconnect between politicians (pursuing different polarizing strategies) and a sizable fraction of the electorate persists, as voters remain alienated from old and emerging political elites. Because the structural changes that make disjointed polarization persist longer than expected in Chile today are widespread across Latin America, the essay speculates on the possibility that enduring disjointed polarization applies to other cases where neither a “populist realignment” nor “generative polarization” took place. Instead, disjointed polarization might reflect the onset of a new (non-partisan representation) normal.
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    Do conditionalities increase support for government transfers?
    (2020) Zucco, C.; Luna, Juan Pablo; Baykal, O. G.
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    Fallas del estado en la recuperación de una zona de sacrificio : el caso del PRAS para Quintero y Puchuncaví
    (2020) Rogers Cerda, Lya; Valdés, Rodrigo O.; Luna, Juan Pablo; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de Gobierno
    Las comunas de Quintero y Puchuncaví son un caso emblemático de las llamadas “zonasde sacrificio” y de falla del Estado en Chile. En 2017 se aprobó un ambicioso Programa deRecuperación Ambiental y Social (PRAS) que a pesar de buscar compensar el alto impactopúblico que han tenido los incidentes ambientales en la zona, ha tenido un efecto casi nulo sobreel estándar de vida de la población. Este trabajo analiza el PRAS, específicamente el diseño de laFase V, de Implementación y Seguimiento, los indicadores y reportes de seguimiento con elobjetivo de entender qué falló. Entre otros aspectos se identifica un pobre diseño, sin losmínimos que entrega una evaluación ex ante, por carencia de detalle e índices en la medición delimpacto de las soluciones propuestas.El caso del PRAS para las comunas de Quintero y Puchuncaví se presenta como ilustrativo delos problemas que puede generar el descuido de un diseño apropiado de las etapas deimplementación, seguimiento y evaluación en el proceso de formación de una política públicaefectiva. Además de prestarse para situaciones de corrupción, los cientos de millones de pesosinvertidos en las iniciativas fallan en cumplir su objetivo fundamental: reportar mejoras en lacalidad de vida de los habitantes de la dañada zona de sacrificio de Bahía Quintero.
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    Frente Amplio and the crafting of a social democratic alternative in Uruguay
    (CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2007) Luna, Juan Pablo
    This study of Uruguay's Frente Amplio, explores four central questions for the analysis of the "new Latin American left." How did a leftist alternative emerge and grow inside an institutionalized party system? How do the socioeconomic and political factors that enabled the rise of the left in Uruguay differ from those observed in other Latin American cases? How did Frente Amplio adapt itself to profit from the opportunities that arose during the 1990s? What are the implications of the previous factors for governmental action by the FA? In answering these questions, this study integrates an analysis of the sociological and political-institutional opportunity structures consolidated during the 1990s with one of strategic partisan adaptation processes. This perspective is useful for explaining how, by 2004, Frente Amplio had built a dual support base from its historical constituency and a socially heterogeneous group alienated from traditional parties due to economic and political discontent.
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    Greater State Capacity, Lesser Stateness: Lessons from the Peruvian Commodity Boom
    (2017) Luna, Juan Pablo; Feldman, Andreas; Dargent, Eduardo
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    La incorporación de los asentamientos informales a la ciudad : la tierra urbana como arena de contención política.
    (2020) Maroto, María Marta; Luna, Juan Pablo; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política
    ¿Bajo qué condiciones los gobiernos locales deciden intervenir en los asentamientos informales? Mientras que la expulsión de los sectores de menores recursos de los centros urbanos a través de mecanismos de mercado (i.e. gentrificación) ha sido reconocido como un fenómeno global, en las grandes ciudades del Sur Global éste ha coincidido con el crecimiento sostenido de la población residente en asentamientos informales. Los gobiernos locales han llevado a cabo distintos tipos de intervención en estos espacios urbanos, que van desde el desalojo a la regularización e incorporación de los mismos al tejido urbano. Los estudios urbanos han asociados la disparidad de la acción estatal en los asentamientos informales urbanos tanto a lógicas clientelares llevadas a cabo por los partidos de gobierno, como a la acción colectiva de las organizaciones de base territorial. Sin embargo, el rol de los intereses de la coalición gubernamental favorable al desarrollo urbano en el territorio informalmente habitado no ha sido suficientemente problematizado. En esta investigación desarrollo un modelo de incorporación selectiva de asentamientos informales a la ciudad por el cual argumento que la intervención de los gobiernos locales en un asentamiento es el resultado de la interacción entre los intereses de la coalición gubernamental favorable al desarrollo urbano, y la capacidad de una comunidad de peticionar al Estado con el apoyo de una red externa de aliados institucionalmente influyentes. Sostengo que la incorporación de un asentamiento informal a la trama urbana es una estrategia selectiva que le permite al gobierno salir de una situación de estancamiento suscitada en un espacio determinado, y avanzar sus intereses asociados al desarrollo urbano. De este modo, la incorporación del asentamiento es teorizada como una “gridlock solución” al conflicto suscitado por el uso de la tierra urbana. Con el objeto de evaluar la lógica causal de mi argumento desarrollo una estrategia de comparación controlada entre dos asentamientos informales de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, la Villa 20 y Rodrigo bueno, en el período 1990-2017.
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    Jóvenes, inscripción automática y voto voluntario: ¿El tipo de reforma que debemos evitar?
    (Centro de Políticas Públicas UC, 2011) Luna, Juan Pablo
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    Latin america's problems of success
    (2016) Luna, Juan Pablo; Vergara, A.
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    Latin American politics and society: a comparative historical
    (2022) Munck, Gerardo L.; Luna, Juan Pablo
    Taking a fresh thematic approach to politics and society in Latin America, this introductory textbook analyzes the region's past and present in an accessible and engaging style well-suited to undergraduate students. The book provides historical insights into modern states and critical issues they are facing, with insightful analyses that are supported by empirical data, maps and timelines. Drawing upon cutting-edge research, the text considers critical topics relevant to all countries within the region such as the expansion of democracy and citizenship rights and responses to human rights abuses, corruption, and violence. Each richly illustrated chapter contains a compelling and cohesive narrative, followed by thought-provoking questions and further reading suggestions, making this text a vital resource for anyone encountering the complexities of Latin American politics for the first time in their studies.
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    Local Government, Social Media and Management of COVID-19: The Case of Chilean Mayoral Communication
    (2023) Luna, Juan Pablo; Alcatruz, Daniel; Pérez Muñoz, Cristian; Rosenblatt, Fernando; Toro Maureira, Sergio; Valenzuela Leighton, Sebastián Andrés