Browsing by Author "Martinez Aranza, Victor Julio"

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    An Efficient Forecasting-Optimization Scheme for the Intraday Unit Commitment Process Under Significant Wind and Solar Power
    (2018) Cordova, Samuel; Rudnick, Hugh; Lorca Galvez, Álvaro Hugo; Martinez Aranza, Victor Julio
    Due to their uncertain and variable nature, the large-scale integration of wind and solar power poses significant challenges to the generator scheduling process in power systems. To support this process, system operators require using repeatedly updated forecasts of the best possible quality for renewable power. Motivated by this, the present work aims to study the benefits of incorporating spatiotemporal dependence and seasonalities into probabilistic forecasts for the intraday unit commitment (UC) process. With this purpose, a highly efficient forecasting-optimization scheme is proposed, which is composed of a detrended periodic vector autoregressive model and a technology-clustered interval UC model. The proposed approach is tested on a 120-GW power system with 210 conventional generators using real wind and solar measurements and compared to existing deterministic and stochastic UC techniques alongside standard forecasting methods. Extensive computational experiments show that the incorporation of spatiotemporal dependence and seasonalities into forecasts translates in a reduction of up to 1.55% in operational costs for a daily UC relative to standard practice, the application of intraday instead of daily UC runs further reduces operational costs in up to 1.51%, and the proposed forecasting-optimization scheme takes less than 10 h to simulate a whole year.
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    Long-Run Energy and Emissions Modeling in Chile: Scenario Assessment using MESSAGE
    (2012) Watts Casimis, David Eduardo; Martinez Aranza, Victor Julio
    The evolution of Chile's energy matrix into a more sustainable system with high levels of energy adequacy and security in the long term brings with it important challenges and could signify a paradigm change in the manner in which the system is planned and managed. Long-term energy planning, forgotten in Chile due to the control of the markets, is now fundamental for studying changes in the future national energy supply and its emissions. This article contributes by developing an energy model of the main national system in MESSAGE and evaluating the effects of the scenarios that dominate national discussions; including large amounts of hydro, nuclear and wind energy. We find that using part of the country's hydro power potential is fundamental to replace carbon without imposing higher costs in the economy. However, the use of large amounts of low marginal cost energy (hydro, nuclear, wind, etc.) creates important drops in the price of energy which could compromise the sustainability of these scenarios in the marginal pricing framework that is utilized today.
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    Technological impact of non-conventional renewable energy in the Chilean electricity system
    (IEEE, 2010) Molina Castro, Juan David; Martinez Aranza, Victor Julio; Rudnick Van de Wyngard, Hugh
    Renewable energy has had a steady growth in power systems worldwide. The high uncertainty about what type of renewable technology meets technical and economic variables of the energy markets and what could be the participation in the energy matrix are important long term energy planning challenges that need to be identified and evaluated. This work assesses different scenarios of future development of the Chilean electricity matrix and the technological contribution of renewables. They are formulated within the Chilean Central Interconnected System and determine the evolution of technological diversity variables, costs, CO2 emissions and energy injection. The scenarios illustrate the need to strengthen the transmission system and the importance of improving and / or incorporating mechanisms to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and the maximization of renewable resources in Chile. Future work will establish the impact of intermittent renewable technologies on power system operation.