Browsing by Author "Zapata, Juan Camilo Gomez"

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    Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
    (2024) Rosero-Velasquez, Hugo; Monsalve, Mauricio; Zapata, Juan Camilo Gomez; Ferrario, Elisa; Poulos, Alan; de la Llera, Juan Carlos; Straub, Daniel
    Different risk management activities, such as land-use planning, preparedness, and emergency response, utilize scenarios of earthquake events. A systematic selection of such scenarios should aim at finding those that are representative of a certain severity, which can be measured by consequences to the exposed assets. For this reason, defining a representative scenario as the most likely one leading to a loss with a specific return period, e.g., the 100-year loss, has been proposed.We adopt this definition and develop enhanced algorithms for determining such scenarios for multiple return periods. With this approach, we identify representative earthquake scenarios for the return periods of 50, 100, 500, and 1000 years in the Chilean communes of Valpara & iacute;so and Vi & ntilde;a del Mar, based on a synthetic earthquake catalog of 20 000 scenarios on the subduction zone with a magnitude of Mw >= 5.0. We separately consider the residential-building stock and the electrical-power network and identify and compare earthquake scenarios that are representative of these systems. Because the representative earthquake scenarios are defined in terms of the annual loss exceedance rates, they vary in function of the exposed system. The identified representative scenarios for the building stock have epicenters located not further than 30 km from the two communes, with magnitudes ranging between 6.0 and 7.0. The epicenter locations of the earthquake scenarios representative of the electrical-power network are more spread out but not further than 100 km away from the two communes, with magnitudes ranging between 7.0 and 9.0. For risk management activities, we recommend considering the identified scenarios together with historical events.
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    Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
    (2023) Feliciano, Dirsa; Arroyo, Orlando; Cabrera, Tamara; Contreras, Diana; Torres, Jairo Andres Valcarcel; Zapata, Juan Camilo Gomez
    Colombia is in one of the most active seismic zones onEarth, where the Nazca, Caribbean, and South American plates converge.Approximately 83 % of the national population lives in intermediate tohigh seismic hazard zones, and a significant part of the country's buildinginventory dates from before the nation's first seismic design code (1984).At present, seismic risk scenarios are available for the major cities of the country, but there is still a need to undertake such studies in otherregions. This paper presents a seismic risk scenario for the SabanaCentro province, an intermediate hazard zone located close to thecountry's capital. An exposure model was created combining information fromthe Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, surveys, and the nationalcensus. Fragility and vulnerability curves were assigned to the buildingtypes of the region. A hazard model was developed for the region and18 earthquake scenarios with a return period of 475 years weresimulated using the OpenQuake (OQ) hazard and risk assessment tool toestimate damage and economic losses. In addition, a social vulnerabilityindex (SVI) based on demographic information was used to assess the directeconomic loss in terms of replacement costs. The results show that 10 % of all buildings considered in the region would experience collapse, and 7 % would suffer severe damage. Losses account for 14 % of the total replacement cost of the buildings and represent 21 % of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the region.