Browsing by Author "de la Llera, Juan Carlos"

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    A framework to account for structural damage, functional efficiency and reparation costs within the optimal design of countermeasures: Application to snow avalanche risk mitigation
    (2022) Favier, Philomene; Eckert, Nicolas; Faug, Thierry; Bertrand, David; Ousset, Isabelle; Candia, Gabriel; de la Llera, Juan Carlos
    In mountain areas, long-term snow avalanche risk evaluation is of paramount importance for land use planning. In avalanche-prone areas, when real estate demand is high, for instance, building protective structures may be a sensible choice for reaching a compromise between safety and development. Specifically, minimizing the risk within a quantitative framework can provide optimal defense structure configurations (size, localization, construction technology, etc.). However, existing approaches based on a proper theoretical decision-making framework still suffer from limitations making them hardly usable in practice. It is herein proposed to account for the physical, functional, and monetary dimensions of a protective measure within the assessment of total risk. Total risk, which is calculated as the mean expected loss, is quantified within a four-state system in which the failure of the dam and the failure of the dwellings to be protected are assessed with specific vulnerability relations. Bounds for the risk and subsequent optimal dam design values are quantified using minimum and maximum (min/max) functional efficiency relations of the dam. Additional assumptions regarding the functional-structural efficiency relation allow for the optimal design and corresponding minimum risk to be reached. An application is proposed with a case study from the French Alps. A comprehensive parametric study shows that the min/max bounds risk quantification is worth implementing in some cases, such as, for instance: if there is a high uncertainty of the functional efficiency of the dam, of if the assets to be protected have a monetary value. However, when the failure of the dam is unlikely to occur (due to its location or to its material resistance), it is shown that quantification of the intermediate risk without the min/max bounds approach is sufficient. In the future, the framework could be extended to many other mountain hazards (debris flows, landslides, etc.), more complex elements at risk, and even to problems going beyond the sole question of land-use planning such as traffic road regulation.
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    Gran Laboratorio de Resiliencia Frente a Desastres de Origen Natural
    (2018) de la Llera, Juan Carlos; Rivera, F; Gil, Magdalena
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    Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
    (2024) Rosero-Velasquez, Hugo; Monsalve, Mauricio; Zapata, Juan Camilo Gomez; Ferrario, Elisa; Poulos, Alan; de la Llera, Juan Carlos; Straub, Daniel
    Different risk management activities, such as land-use planning, preparedness, and emergency response, utilize scenarios of earthquake events. A systematic selection of such scenarios should aim at finding those that are representative of a certain severity, which can be measured by consequences to the exposed assets. For this reason, defining a representative scenario as the most likely one leading to a loss with a specific return period, e.g., the 100-year loss, has been proposed.We adopt this definition and develop enhanced algorithms for determining such scenarios for multiple return periods. With this approach, we identify representative earthquake scenarios for the return periods of 50, 100, 500, and 1000 years in the Chilean communes of Valpara & iacute;so and Vi & ntilde;a del Mar, based on a synthetic earthquake catalog of 20 000 scenarios on the subduction zone with a magnitude of Mw >= 5.0. We separately consider the residential-building stock and the electrical-power network and identify and compare earthquake scenarios that are representative of these systems. Because the representative earthquake scenarios are defined in terms of the annual loss exceedance rates, they vary in function of the exposed system. The identified representative scenarios for the building stock have epicenters located not further than 30 km from the two communes, with magnitudes ranging between 6.0 and 7.0. The epicenter locations of the earthquake scenarios representative of the electrical-power network are more spread out but not further than 100 km away from the two communes, with magnitudes ranging between 7.0 and 9.0. For risk management activities, we recommend considering the identified scenarios together with historical events.