Optimization under uncertainty for the management of hydroelectric resources

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dc.catalogadorgjm
dc.contributor.advisorLorca Gálvez, Álvaro Hugo
dc.contributor.authorFavereau Monti, Marcel Joseph
dc.contributor.otherPontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de Ingeniería
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-29T16:25:33Z
dc.date.available2023-08-29T16:25:33Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.descriptionTesis (Doctor in Engineering Sciences)--Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, 2023
dc.description.abstractHydroelectric generation management is considered a fundamental problem in the operation of power systems, where operations research has contributed significantly to decision making. One of the most relevant difficulties is that the decisions of storage and use of water resources in the present affect future decisions. Additionally, this problem presents another important challenge associated with the uncertain nature of hydro inflows, which is becoming even more complex today due to the consequences of climate change. Thus, this thesis proposes the development of optimization under uncertainty models to support medium- and long-term planning of hydrothermal system operations. First, this thesis proposes to develop a statistical model that represents the random behavior of hydro inflows in multinodal and multireservoir hydrothermal systems. The purpose is to capture statistical aspects such as trend, seasonality, spatio-temporal correlation, asymmetry and multiple modes present in historical hydrological data through the use of autoregressive models and variational inference algorithms. In a second part, it is proposed the development of a risk-averse optimization under uncertainty model that incorporates the previously proposed statistical methodologies for the medium-term operation of hydrothermal systems. The main objective is to determine an optimal generation policy capable of operating efficiently under the least favorable realizations of future hydrological trajectories. Finally, the third stage consists of the development of optimization under uncertainty models that support long-term energy planning and operation processes. The idea is to analyze the role of water in the interaction with other productive sectors such as agriculture, thus improving the efficiency of the use of their resources. This tool will also make it possible to anticipate future phenomena such as the penetration of new technologies, regulatory changes in the use of water resources or their low availability, and what would be the impacts on the resource management for different users.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2023-08-29
dc.format.extentxxi, 303 páginas
dc.fuente.origenSRIA
dc.identifier.doi10.7764/tesisUC/ING/74542
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.7764/tesisUC/ING/74542
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/74542
dc.information.autorucEscuela de ingeniería; Lorca Gálvez, Álvaro Hugo; 0000-0002-9864-0932; 148348
dc.information.autorucEscuela de ingeniería; Favereau Monti, Marcel Joseph; S/I; 1086200
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido completo
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.subjectOptimización bajo incertidumbre
dc.subjectAversión al riesgo
dc.subjectProcesos estocásticos
dc.subjectGestión de recursos hídricos
dc.subjectGeneración hidroeléctrica
dc.subjectPlanificación energética
dc.subject.ddc620
dc.subject.deweyIngenieríaes_ES
dc.subject.ods06 Clean water and sanitation
dc.subject.odspa06 Agua limpia y saneamiento
dc.titleOptimization under uncertainty for the management of hydroelectric resourceses_ES
dc.typetesis doctoral
sipa.codpersvinculados148348
sipa.codpersvinculados1086200
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