Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorAlaniz, Alberto J.
dc.contributor.authorMarquet, Pablo A.
dc.contributor.authorCarvajal, Mario A.
dc.contributor.authorVergara, Pablo M.
dc.contributor.authorMoreira-Arce, Dario
dc.contributor.authorMuzzio, Miguel A.
dc.contributor.authorKeith, David A.
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T17:08:04Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T17:08:04Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractClimate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.
dc.description.funderVicerrectoria de Investigacion, Desarrollo e Innovacion, Universidad de Santiago de Chile
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/cobi.14247
dc.identifier.eissn1523-1739
dc.identifier.issn0888-8892
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.14247
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/90914
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:001185532100001
dc.issue.numero4
dc.language.isoen
dc.revistaConservation biology
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectabiotic variables
dc.subjectecosystem collapse
dc.subjectforecasting
dc.subjectglobal change
dc.subjectglobal warming
dc.subjecttime of emergence
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.ods06 Clean Water and Sanitation
dc.subject.ods07 Affordable and Clean Energy
dc.subject.ods15 Life on Land
dc.subject.ods08 Decent Work and Economic Growth
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.ods14 Life Below Water
dc.subject.ods09 Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
dc.subject.ods12 Responsible Consumption and Production
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.subject.odspa06 Agua limpia y saneamiento
dc.subject.odspa07 Energía asequible y no contaminante
dc.subject.odspa15 Vida de ecosistemas terrestres
dc.subject.odspa08 Trabajo decente y crecimiento económico
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.subject.odspa14 Vida submarina
dc.subject.odspa09 Industria, innovación e infraestructura
dc.subject.odspa12 Producción y consumo responsable
dc.titlePerspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen38
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
Files
Collections
Artículos de revistas