Climate projections of oceanographic variables in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Ecuador: A 21st century perspective to inform impact and adaptation assessment

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dc.contributor.authorWinckler, Patricio
dc.contributor.authorFarias, Laura
dc.contributor.authorVicuna, Sebastian
dc.contributor.authorEsparza, Cesar
dc.contributor.authorMora, Javiera
dc.contributor.authorChubretovic, Rosario
dc.contributor.authorCabrera, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorZambrano-Sanchez, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorCaza, Pablo
dc.contributor.authorGonzalez, Rosa Ana
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T16:14:00Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T16:14:00Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractClimate projections of ocean variables are essential to inform adaptation strategies and plans involving open and coastal oceanic regions. Assessment of baseline and projections of sea surface temperature (SST), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), mean sea level (MSL), waves coastal flooding within Ecuador's Exclusive Economic Zone, including Galapagos Islands are reported herein. With different magnitudes of change, both near-future (2021-2050) and far-future projections (2051-2080) show a statistically robust increase in SST, MSL rise and a reduction in pH, a proxy for acidification. In contrast, DO decrease is only observed in surface (0-100 m) but not in subsurface waters (100-400 m). The likelihood of extreme sea level events in the coastal cities of La Libertad, Manta and Esmeraldas would remain almost unchanged for near-future projections (2026-2045) whereas, for end-ofcentury projections (2081-2100), historical 1 in a 100-year extreme flooding events would become yearly occurrences. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change. Since the eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean is one of the most productive and biodiverse worldwide due to the equatorial upwelling system, possible impacts on marine biodiversity, social, and economic systems are discussed.
dc.description.funderGlobal Environmental Fund (GEF)
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103612
dc.identifier.issn2352-4855
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2024.103612
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/90417
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:001261879500001
dc.language.isoen
dc.revistaRegional studies in marine science
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectSST
dc.subjectPH
dc.subjectDO and MSL projections
dc.subjectEastern Tropical Pacific Ocean
dc.subjectEcuador
dc.subjectGal <acute accent>apagos
dc.subject.ods14 Life Below Water
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.odspa14 Vida submarina
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.titleClimate projections of oceanographic variables in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Ecuador: A 21st century perspective to inform impact and adaptation assessment
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen77
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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