Forecasting vs. observed outturn: Studying choice in faster inter-island connections

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dc.contributor.authorMaria Grisolia, Jose
dc.contributor.authorOrtuzar, Juan de Dios
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-10T13:13:10Z
dc.date.available2024-01-10T13:13:10Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.description.abstractPassenger demand and, in particular, mode choice between the islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife has experienced important changes in the last decade. In 2005 the jetfoil, which had been the dominant mode for many years, was replaced by a slower but cheaper fast ferry service. This induced important changes in the market shares of all competing modes (airplane, slow ferry and another fast ferry with a shorter in-sea time, but needing a bus connection in land). We estimated several discrete choice models, with data collected two years before, with the aim to test their forecasting performance in relation with observed behaviour. Interestingly, we found that an easy to interpret multinomial logit model allowing for systematic taste variations performed best in forecasting. We also discuss some model assumptions related to forecasting that allow replicating the effects of introducing a new mode more accurately. We finally show how the model can be used to examine the social benefits of a related infrastructure improvement project in the island of Gran Canaria. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
dc.description.funderCanary Islands Government
dc.description.funderChilean Fund for Scientific and Technological Research, FONDECYT
dc.description.funderMillennium Institute on Complex Engineering Systems
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital11-04-2024
dc.format.extent10 páginas
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.tra.2009.12.005
dc.identifier.issn0965-8564
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.12.005
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/78274
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000275992800004
dc.information.autorucIngeniería;Ortúzar J. de D;S/I;99241
dc.issue.numero3
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido parcial
dc.pagina.final168
dc.pagina.inicio159
dc.publisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
dc.revistaTRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectDiscrete choice analysis
dc.subjectForecasts vs. outturn
dc.subjectInter-island travel demand
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.titleForecasting vs. observed outturn: Studying choice in faster inter-island connections
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen44
sipa.codpersvinculados99241
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.indexScopus
sipa.trazabilidadCarga SIPA;09-01-2024
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