Forecasting ozone daily maximum levels at Santiago, Chile

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dc.contributor.authorJorquera, H
dc.contributor.authorPerez, R
dc.contributor.authorCipriano, A
dc.contributor.authorEspejo, A
dc.contributor.authorLetelier, MV
dc.contributor.authorAcuna, G
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-10T13:48:31Z
dc.date.available2024-01-10T13:48:31Z
dc.date.issued1998
dc.description.abstractIn major urban areas, air pollution impact on health is serious enough to include it in the group of meteorological variables that are forecast daily. This work focusses on the comparison of different forecasting systems for daily maximum ozone levels at Santiago, Chile. The modelling tools used for these systems were linear time series, artificial neural networks and fuzzy models. The structure of the forecasting model was derived from basic principles and it includes a combination of persistence and daily maximum air temperature as input variables. Assessment of the models is based on two indices: their ability to forecast well an episode, and their tendency to forecast an episode that did not occur at the end (a false positive). All the models tried in this work showed good forecasting performance, with 70-95% of successful forecasts at two monitor sites: Downtown (moderate impacts) and Eastern (downwind, highest impacts). The number of false positives was not negligible, but this may be improved by expressing the forecast in broad classes:low, average, high, very high impacts; the fuzzy model was the most reliable forecast, with the lowest number of false positives among the different models evaluated. The quality of the results and the dynamics of ozone formation suggest the use of a forecast to warn people about excessive exposure during episodic days at Santiago. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2024-04-11
dc.format.extent10 páginas
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00035-1
dc.identifier.issn1352-2310
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(98)00035-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/79373
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000076086300005
dc.information.autorucIngeniería;Cipriano A;S/I;99102
dc.information.autorucIngeniería;Jorquera H;S/I;100302
dc.information.autorucIngeniería;Pérez J;S/I;100130
dc.issue.numero20
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido parcial
dc.pagina.final3424
dc.pagina.inicio3415
dc.publisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
dc.revistaATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectground ozone level
dc.subjectfuzzy model
dc.subjectneural network
dc.subjecttime series
dc.subjectenvironmental warning system
dc.subjectTIME-SERIES
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.titleForecasting ozone daily maximum levels at Santiago, Chile
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen32
sipa.codpersvinculados99102
sipa.codpersvinculados100302
sipa.codpersvinculados100130
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.indexScopus
sipa.trazabilidadCarga SIPA;09-01-2024
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