Using narratives and numbers in performance prediction: Attitudes, confidence, and validity

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dc.contributor.authorNiessen, A. Susan M.
dc.contributor.authorKausel, Edgar E.
dc.contributor.authorNeumann, Marvin
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T22:01:21Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T22:01:21Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractIn a preregistered prediction-task experiment, we investigated the effect of narrative versus quantified information on decision-maker perceptions, confidence, predictor weighting, and predictive accuracy when making performance predictions. We also investigated the effect of who quantifies information (the decision maker or someone else). As expected, we found higher perceived informativeness and use intentions for narrative than quantified information. Information presented narratively was also weighted somewhat more heavily than quantified information. Using quantitative information quantified by decision makers themselves yielded higher perceived autonomy and use intentions than quantitative information quantified by someone else. However, no differences in prediction confidence were found and self- and other-produced quantifications received identical weight. Moreover, unexpectedly, differences in weighting did not translate to differences in predictive accuracy.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/ijsa.12364
dc.identifier.eissn1468-2389
dc.identifier.issn0965-075X
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/ijsa.12364
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/93815
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000733404400001
dc.issue.numero2
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final229
dc.pagina.inicio216
dc.revistaInternational journal of selection and assessment
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectnarratives
dc.subjectnonvalid information
dc.subjectperformance prediction
dc.subjectquantification
dc.subjectvalidity
dc.titleUsing narratives and numbers in performance prediction: Attitudes, confidence, and validity
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen30
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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