On disasters evacuation modeling: From disruptive to slow-response decisions

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dc.article.number102678
dc.catalogadorjca
dc.contributor.authorFavereau, Marcel
dc.contributor.authorRobledo, Luis F.
dc.contributor.authorVillalobos, Diego
dc.contributor.authorDescote, Pierre Yves
dc.date.accessioned2023-12-19T18:26:10Z
dc.date.available2023-12-19T18:26:10Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractDecision-making evacuation modeling for natural hazards has always been complex due to the uncertainty of variables affecting it. One of the most relevant existing assumptions for this kind of simulation is the use of sigmoid distributions (e.g., Rayleigh) to represent the evacuation times. We found some disadvantages in using this type of probability distribution for slowresponse disasters (i.e., geological hazards applications), where there may be a non-negligible delay time between the beginning of the disaster and the consequent evacuation. For that reason, we developed and fitted a displaced sigmoid distribution to the results of a landslide evacuation simulation, i.e., applied to the 2008 disaster of Chaiten in southern Chile. We considered a Rayleigh distribution with a shape factor and a (proposed) displacement factor for predictions. The results suggest considering a displacement when using the Rayleigh distribution to represent slow-response evacuations. We also provide a detailed discussion about the time-dependent factors that may influence this displacement.
dc.description.funderChile's National Research and Development Agency (ANID, in Spanish) of Chile through the Joint Research Project in Disaster Management Between Chile and China (ANID Grant)
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2023-12-15
dc.format.extent11 páginas
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102678
dc.identifier.issn2212-4209
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102678
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/75541
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000720306100001
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería;Favereau, Marcel;0000-0001-8573-2742;1086200
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido completo
dc.pagina.final11
dc.pagina.inicio1
dc.publisherELSEVIER
dc.revistaInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.subjectEvacuation
dc.subjectLandslide
dc.subjectRayleigh distribution
dc.subjectSlow-response disasters
dc.subjectSHALLOW LANDSLIDES
dc.subjectRAINFALL INTENSITY
dc.subjectDURATION CONTROL
dc.subjectCHAITEN VOLCANO
dc.subjectSIMULATION
dc.subjectTSUNAMI
dc.subjectRISK
dc.subject.ddc550
dc.subject.deweyCiencias de la tierraes_ES
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.titleOn disasters evacuation modeling: From disruptive to slow-response decisions
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen67
sipa.codpersvinculados1086200
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;18-03-2022
sipa.trazabilidadORCID;2023-12-11
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